Analysis: The China Eastern plane crash that killed 132 was an anomaly given the country’s strong safety record

By: Chuqin Jiang

The China Eastern plane crash in March with 132 people on board shocked the world. On March 26th, four days after the accident, Chinese authorities officially confirmed that there was no survivor in the crash. But despite the tragic accident, China’s flight safety track record is strong, according to an analysis of Chinese aviation data.

On Nov. 21, 2004, a plane stalled and crashed into a lake less than one minute after taking off from Baotou Airport.

 

Yichun, 2010

Baotou, 2004

On March 22, a Boeing 737-800 operated by China Eastern Airlines crashed in the mountains of Teng County, Guangxi province.

 

Kunming

Guangzhou

On Nov. 21, 2004, a plane stalled and crashed into a lake less than one minute after taking off from Baotou Airport.

 

Yichun, 2010

Baotou, 2004

Kunming

Guangzhou

On March 22, a Boeing 737-800 operated by China Eastern Airlines crashed in the mountains of Teng County, Guangxi province.

 

Here are where it happened.

The flight MU5735 was scheduled to take off at 1:11 p.m. local time from Kunming en route to Guangzhou, a trip that this plane had made at least 66 times in the past year.

But during the cruise phase of flights, it suddenly began a rapid descent, losing about 25,900 feet within two minutes. Although there was a slight recover when reaching 7,425 feet, the plane kept falling, until crashed in Wuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.

The nation hasn’t seen a fatal commercial airline crash accident in a decade. The last plane crash happened in Yichun in 2010, when a airplane struck terrain while landing with poor visibility in radiation fog. 44 out of 96 people on board died.

The last crash with no single survivor can be dated back to 2004, with death toll of 55 (53 on board and 2 on the ground).

The recent tragedy put an end on the Chinese air carriers safe flying record for more than 100 million straight hours, which was a world record. For more than 10 years, China kept less than two accidents per million commercial departures, far below the world average.

China has less commercial airline accidents than the world average since 2008

6 accidents per million commercial departures

World

4

U.S.

2

China

0

2008

2021

Passengers 40.5%

Cargo

Others

Military

In all the plane accident records collected by The Aviation Safety Network, there are 153 fatal plane cases.

Among them, only 40.5% of them have involved with average passengers.

1922

1922-1927

1927-1932

1932-1937

1937-1942

1942-1947

1947-1952

1952-1957

1957-1962

1962-1967

1967-1972

1972-1977

1977-1982

1982-1987

1987-1992

1992-1997

1997-2002

2002-2007

2007-2012

2012-2017

2017-2022

660 millions passengers carried in 2019

This bar chart shows fatalities and survivors in each 5-year-period. #It supposed to highlight different parts but somehow I failed. Need some debugging!

Most civil aviation incidents happened before the founding of People’s Republic China, when very few Chinese people can afford the plane tickets and the worldwide plane accidents rate is high;

and after the Reform and Opening policy, when more people are willing to fly but the civil aviation operation system has not been mature yet.

In the 1990s the International Airline Passengers Association has labeled China as one of the most dangerous places in the world to fly.

The deadliest airplane crash ever in China's history was in 1994, with 146 passengers and 14 crew members died.

But in 21st century, there are only eight fatal accidents, despite the huge spike of the total passengers, from less than 100 million in 2000 to 660 million in 2019.

Data source: Aviation Safety Network

Scraping and analysis process can be found here